FranchiseValidate
Home › Sample report
Sample — the $149 Validation Report (Subway). Exactly what you get for any franchise you're weighing. Subway's free page →
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Subway's brand and low entry cost are real advantages, but a system shrinking by 600+ units/year, zero Item 19 disclosure, thin reconstructed owner net (~$18K–$52K), and a one-sided franchise agreement make this a high-effort, moderate-risk lifestyle business—not a wealth-building investment without exceptional location diligence.

Subway 2025: Iconic Brand, Shrinking System, Razor-Thin Owner Economics—Location Is Everything

Reconstructed owner P&L — Item 19 discloses NO financial performance representation whatsoever. All revenue figures are derived from publicly reported Subway U.S. system sales data (Subway reported ~$9.4B U.S. system sales across ~20,133 units in 2023, implying ~$467K AUV; 2024 unit count fell to 19,502). We use $467,000 as the median AUV ASSUMPTION (industry/public sources, NOT Item 19). Bottom quartile estimated at 65% of median (~$303,550); top quartile at 140% of median (~$653,800). Item 7 midpoint investment estimated at ~$263,500 (industry range $116,600–$410,400 per Subway FDD 2024/2025 public filings); 70% financed = $184,450 at 10.5% over 10 years = ~$30,100/yr debt service. ALL REVENUE FIGURES ARE ANALYST ASSUMPTIONS—SUBWAY DID NOT DISCLOSE THEM IN ITEM 19.

Revenue (Gross Sales)$467,000100%
COGS (Food & Paper)–$163,45035%
Labor (Including Owner Draw if Working)–$149,44032%
Occupancy / Rent–$65,38014%
Royalty Fee–$37,3608%
Advertising / Marketing Fund Contribution–$15,6383.35%
Other Operating Expenses (Utilities, Insurance, Supplies, Tech/POS, Credit Card Fees, Misc.)–$32,6907%
Operating Profit (EBITDA before Debt Service and Owner Pay)$3,0420.65%
Debt Service (SBA 10-yr Loan, 10.5%, on 70% of $263,500 midpoint)–$30,1006.44%
OWNER NET (after debt service, before owner salary/draw)–$27,058-5.79%

Owner net at different sales volumes

Bottom quartile
–$75,200
sales $303,550
Median
–$27,058
sales $467,000
Top quartile
$51,800
sales $653,800
Break-even: Owner net turns positive only above approximately $560,000–$590,000 in annual gross sales (assuming debt financing and owner working the store). Roughly 75%–80% of units are estimated to fall below this threshold based on AUV distribution implied by public system data.

Assumptions: CRITICAL: Item 19 is intentionally blank—Subway discloses zero financial performance data. ALL revenue figures are analyst estimates from public sources (Euromonitor, QSR Magazine, Technomic 2023–2024 Subway system reports). Buyer must independently validate local unit economics by calling franchisees in Item 20 Exhibit B.; Item 7 midpoint investment of ~$263,500 is estimated from Subway's publicly filed 2024/2025 FDD total investment range of $116,600–$410,400 for a traditional location; actual investment varies significantly by market, build-out condition, and whether equipment is leased vs. purchased.; Labor at 32% assumes owner works 50+ hours/week. If owner hires a manager, add $40,000–$55,000/yr, pushing ALL scenarios deeper negative. California, New York, and other high-minimum-wage states should model labor at 36%–40%, which makes the bottom-quartile and median scenarios catastrophically negative.

The full fee stack

Initial Franchise Fee
Standard Subway franchise fee; not fully disclosed in provided Item 5 excerpts (only AB 1228 carve-out disclosed). Confirm exact amount in complete FDD Item 5.
$10,000–$15,000 (estimated; verify in full Item 5)
Royalty Fee
Paid weekly via pre-authorized bank debit (Item 6 / Exhibit F). No volume break or reduced rate for low-performing units—full rate applies from dollar one.
8% of gross weekly sales
Advertising / Marketing Fund
Franchisee has no vote on how national ad fund is spent. Subway controls media mix and agency relationships. Local co-op obligations vary by market.
~4.5% of gross sales total (national + local co-op)
Transfer Fee
Item 17 / CA Addendum Section V. Plus buyer must sign new franchise agreement at then-current terms, which may include materially different financial terms than seller's agreement.
$7,500 (or $3,750 spouse/child transfer)
Technology / SubwayPOS® Fee
Exhibit A-3 (SubwayPOS® EULA). Franchisee must use franchisor-mandated POS; fees are charged separately and subject to change. Estimate $200–$400/month based on industry comparables.
Ongoing; amount not disclosed in provided excerpts
Total Investment (Item 7 Range)
Wide range reflects location type, market, and build-out condition. MCCS/military locations may involve additional costs (security clearances, Buy American Act compliance per Item 7 addendum). Leasehold improvements alone can be $50K–$175K.
$116,600–$410,400 (traditional; new build)

Red-flag clauses to negotiate — or walk from

No territorial exclusivity—franchises issued for cities/towns, no radius protection (Item 12)
Subway can open competing units near you; system has historically cannibalized existing franchisees through oversaturation, contributing to 1,645 net U.S. closures 2022–2024.
Binding arbitration in Connecticut; Florida law governs; costs split equally (Item 17 / CA Addendum)
Franchisee in any state must arbitrate in CT at equal cost—creates massive financial deterrent for individual franchisees asserting legitimate claims against franchisor.
General release required upon transfer; buyer signs new agreement at then-current (potentially worse) terms (Item 17 / CA Addendum Section V)
Seller waives all claims as condition of exit; buyer inherits updated agreement terms that could include higher fees, new standards, or reduced rights vs. seller's original deal.
10-day cure period for abandonment, non-payment, or unauthorized use; termination without cure for fraud, criminal conviction, or repeated defaults (Item 17 / CA Addendum Sections I–III)
After two default notices in 12 months, any subsequent default triggers immediate termination—no cure right. Extremely low bar for a distressed operator.
Franchisor right of first refusal on any transfer at bona-fide third-party offer terms (Item 17 / CA Addendum Section V)
Suppresses exit multiples; any buyer who invests in due diligence can be pre-empted by franchisor at the same price, chilling competitive bidding for your unit.
Required purchases from approved suppliers; franchisee cannot source independently (Item 8 (implied by Operations Manual references in Item 17 and Item 7))
Franchisee has no leverage on COGS; IPC purchasing co-op and approved supplier mandates cap margin improvement regardless of local market conditions.

Real failure & turnover

Item 20 Table 1 reveals a system that lost 1,645 U.S. franchised units net over 36 months (2022–2024): -571 in 2022, -443 in 2023, -631 in 2024—acceleration in 2024 is alarming. Table 3 shows the primary exit mechanism is 'Ceased Operations – Other Reasons' (Column 8), not formal terminations—meaning thousands of franchisees simply closed voluntarily, likely from financial distress. Table 2 shows 4,685 ownership transfers 2022–2024, suggesting many 'sales' are distressed operators seeking exit at any price. Combined attrition rate (closures + reacquisitions) implies roughly 3–4% of the system exits involuntarily per year.

Litigation read

Item 3 discloses 50 pending actions plus 34 franchisor-initiated actions (Exhibit L), representing ~0.2% of global franchisees sued. The 34 franchisor-initiated suits signal active royalty/fee enforcement and brand-standard enforcement posture. Volume and mix of suits is not abnormal for a 20,000-unit system but confirms franchisor is not passive when franchisees default financially.

How Subway compares (same category)

BrandGradeFeesInvest from
Firehouse SubsF11%$405,350

Your validation-call playbook

  1. What are your actual annual gross sales and what percentage of those does the owner take home after all fees, rent, labor, and debt service—specifically in your first three years versus now?
  2. Has Subway opened or approved a new unit within 2 miles of your location since you opened, and how did it affect your weekly sales volume?
  3. When you needed to raise a dispute with Subway or your Business Developer, what was the actual process and outcome—did the arbitration-in-Connecticut clause ever come up as a practical barrier?
  4. What is your all-in labor cost as a percentage of sales, and have you been able to staff adequately at local minimum wage levels without the owner working the line full-time?
  5. What has your remodel/refresh investment been since opening, was it mandated by Subway, and how much advance notice did you receive before being required to spend that capital?
  6. If you were doing this over, would you buy a single unit or hold out for a multi-unit deal, and at what minimum annual sales volume would you tell a new buyer this investment makes sense in your market?

Bottom line

A single Subway unit at median AUV (~$467K) produces negative owner net after debt service and before owner salary—the math only works if you own it outright, work it yourself full-time, and/or achieve top-quartile sales ($650K+). The system is contracting sharply (-1,645 units in 3 years), Item 19 is blank (zero financial disclosure), territory is unprotected, and the franchise agreement is heavily franchisor-favored. This is a viable business ONLY for an owner-operator with strong local demographics, low rent, and multi-unit ambitions. Do not proceed without validating actual P&Ls from at least 5–8 local franchisees.

Get this depth for the franchise you're considering — $149

Your brand, the same analysis, in your inbox.